“Can you actually make money with aquaponics?”

It’s the question I get asked more than any other. And honestly, it deserves a better answer than just “yes” or “no.”

The truth? Yes, you can. But you can just as easily lose your shirt. I’ve seen both—farms with lean budgets and smart systems that turn a healthy profit, and million-dollar builds that barely produce two months out of the year.

Recently, I gave a zoom Lunch and Learn with the Agri/Aquaculture Center of Excellence, on the topic of Aquaponic Financial Management. Afterwards, I got an email from a gentlemen who for discretion and the purposes of this story, we will call Dr. Juan Pérez, a retired Air Force officer with deep roots in agriculture and aquaponics. He shared a powerful story: In 2009, he built the first certified organic aquaponic system on the continent. But after a hurricane wiped out his farm, he stepped away, watching from the sidelines as others repeated the same costly mistakes he had once made.

His story gave me pause.

Dr. Juan Pérez isn’t new to aquaponics. In fact, he helped build the first certified organic aquaponic system in North America back in 2009. He trained under Dr. James Rakocy at the University of the Virgin Islands — the pioneer of recirculating aquaculture systems.

But like many early adopters, he was dealt a blow no business plan could prepare for: a hurricane destroyed his farm. $500,000 lost. He pivoted to more financially stable work. Now, nearly two decades later, he’s asking the same question he asked 20 years ago. and the same question others are asking today:

“Is aquaponics finally financially viable?”

“Has anything really changed?”

The answer is yes. But only if we’ve learned from the past.

Rethinking Aquaponic Economics

Most people asking for production data want to know: What’s the yield or revenue per square foot? But in my experience, that question is the wrong starting point. Why?

Because those numbers—especially in research—are often inflated to showcase “ideal” conditions: perfect weather, zero pests, perfect greenhouse climate control. That’s not real life.

Instead, we start by modeling what’s biologically possible in your conditions—your climate, crop, fish species, system design, and even your local market. We then build a financial model on top of this biological one.

A New Era of Aquaponics: What’s Different Now?

The last 20 years have transformed the aquaponics landscape—especially around nutrient modeling, waste treatment, and system design economics.

Here's what we now know:

• You don’t need 60–100g of feed per m²/day (as once recommended by UVI).
• With nutrient mass balancing and digesters, you can achieve similar yields with just 5–30g/m²/day—or less.
• Many farms fail not because the concept is broken—but because they were overbuilt, overfunded, and under-strategized.

My Approach: Biology First, Then Business

A profitable aquaponic system starts with understanding the biology of your crops and fish. Depending on where you are starting from we follow one of serval approaches. Here’s how we do it, when we are sizing a aquaculture system to meet a specific plant demand, be that aquaponics or soil production:

1. Map the Plant Life Cycle

Every crop has a defined growth cycle. We analyze time to maturity, losses, and number of harvests per year to determine your total annual yield.

2. Balance Nutrients with Fish Feed

We calculate the nitrogen needs of the plants and match it with the fish waste produced—considering feed conversion ratios and biofiltration.

3. Model Fish Production as a Function of Plant Demand

Once we know how much feed, and waste needs to be produced we can model the fish based on realistic biological cycles, in their environment. 

Aquaculture research papers, and recirculating aquaculture system not integrating plants, often run at more optimal levels. If you don't take into account the reduced fish growth its likely you will over estimate how much fish you will produce and how fast. One example is with tilapia, which in optimal environments grow to harvest size some times in as little as 6 months, while in low temperature settings we have seen them take as long as 12-14 months.

4. Finalize the Financial Model

With your biological model in hand, we layer in real-world data: labor, equipment, pricing, seasonality, utility costs. The goal is a full cost/revenue picture. With this we can create realistic profit loss statements, multi-year monthly cashflows, and balance sheets, and run it through a series of stress test, to see, if the farm can handle the stress of life, or not.

The $10K Farm That Outperformed a $1.5M One

Let me tell you about two farms I’ve designed.

One had a flashy $1.5 million budget. The other? A shoestring $10K system. And guess what?

They produced the same yield, and only one was profitable.

That’s the difference good design makes. Many farms overspend on systems that aren’t built for their climate, crop, or labor realities. 

I once visited a lettuce operation that was designed by a company, promoting themselves as "the most trusted name in Aquaponics". They were sold a turn-key system that would produce year-round lettuce. Their financial model said it would be profitable based on the production, but the reality, was they were sold a greenhouse and aquaponic system that would never work in their climate with the crops chosen. They ignored the basics of biology, and as a result the farmer could only grow two months per year because of poor temperature and humidity control. The rest of the year? Almost Zero production.

They didn’t just have a bad year—they had a bad business model.

What Does a “Financially Sound” Aquaponic Farm Look Like?

In our models, we look at several different financial benchmarks, but some of the financial indicators we target are:

• Debt service coverage ratio (DSCR): ≥ 1.5
• Payback period: < 3 years (ideally one year)
• Net present value (NPV): Positive
• Modified internal rate of return (MIRR): ≥ 8% (ideally double digits)
• Cash flow: Positive from year one

These aren’t just abstract numbers—they’re how you get taken seriously by banks, investors, and even government agencies..

Investment Grade or Passion Project?

Our goal isn’t to romanticize aquaponics. It’s to make it bankable.

In finance, an investment-grade rating means a low risk of default. For us, to get there it means designing a system that meets clear benchmarks, and delivers predictable returns. If we can’t do that, we advise against moving forward.

Not every idea should be built. That’s the hard truth. But the ideas that do pass the test? They’re worth betting on.

Don’t Bet on Hype. Bet on Strategy.

Aquaponics isn’t new anymore—but the financial framework has finally matured. With the right approach, aquaponics can work in a variety of climates and contexts—but only if you:

• Resist overbuilding
• Engineer for your environment
• Model nutrient flows accurately
• Account for labor, weather, crop loss, and seasonality
• Design for cash flow, not just output

In partnership with the University of Gothenburg, we're finalizing a study that uses tens of ​​thousands of simulations to assess the risk and return of aquaponics investments. The conclusion?

Smart aquaponics works. Dumb aquaponics fails. Every time.

Closing Thoughts: A Conversation Worth Continuing

Dr. Pérez's experience—his success, his loss, and his ongoing curiosity—is exactly what this industry needs more of: people asking better questions, sharing lessons learned, and pushing for models that make sense.

Aquaponics has evolved. Our modeling must evolve with it.

Whether you’re new to aquaponics or rebuilding after setbacks, we’re here to help design smarter systems—ones that work for your goals, your land, and your wallet.

If you’re serious about building a profitable aquaponic farm—or reviving an old one—let’s talk. Book a strategy call here.

Let’s make your next farm investment one that pays you back.